Idol Replacement Therapy: A Series in Three Parts.

By: The Incredible He-Hulk

The daily idol grind has claimed two new victims. By the end of the year, both C-ute’s Umeda Erika and Morning Musume’s Kusumi Koharu will move on from their idol careers into the nebulous career of “modeling.” But while I personally believe these girls want to be models mostly because being a model isn’t being an idol, the how or why of it isn’t of any particular significance. Graduated idols are spilled milk, and there’s no use crying (or speculating) over spilled milk. The real—and much more fun—question is whether or not H!P will bother to replace these fallen soldiers with fresh faced idol recruits.

I will be tackling this issue in a series of posts over the next few days. Today’s post will concern itself with the mechanics of idol replacement—the blueprints used to build the temples at which we worship. Tomorrow’s post will focus on the particular situations each group faces when considering adding new members, as well as the obstacles associated with those situations. Finally, the last article will discuss the pros and cons of adding members to each group and whether or not they should.

Part 1: A Conflict of Visions.

The first decision an idol house must make is simply whether or not a group needs an infusion of idol talent. C-ute and Momuso both have specific considerations to make, unique to each of them, when considering adding new girls. But before we deal with specifics, there are a few general schools of thought on what I’ll refer to here as the numerology of idol groupings, and many of these theories (all given names, now, by me) have been used for years by idol fans—whether they realize it or not—to argue for and against adding members to their favorite groups. At the very least, each has some interesting points to make:

- First, there is the “Growth or Death” school of thought. This theory postulates that an idol group that isn’t constantly replacing old idols, and occasionally simply adding new idols, is an idol group on the decline. In recent years, new groups such as AKB48 have made this theory the basis for their entire marketing strategy. The more idols you have in your group, the better chance that fans will find an idol in your group worth following.

- Next, there is the “Too Many Cooks” theory. This theory postulates that having too many idols in a group prevents idols from creating strong personal identities and building name recognition as individuals. An idol group is only as strong as it’s most famous idol. This is the primary theory used by “bandol” groups like ZONE, and other fixed number idol acts. By keeping the roster small, you put increased emphasis on each girl. Additionally, this increased emphasis creates increased pressure on the group’s idols to be appealing across a wide array of wota demographics.

- Lastly, there is the “Street Gang” theory of idol group creation which puts forth the position that there is an important bonding experience idols all go through when they are the founding members of a group. Their struggle to earn success unites them in a way that nothing else can, and so the close ties formed during this period give an idol group its personal identity. Thusly, any members added to the group after this period dilute the group’s power and further distance the act from its roots.

These three principles are helpful, but flawed, and are rarely universally applicable. This is partially because each principle argues against the others on some level, but also because the nature of an idol group’s formation is so often unique. Morning Musume, for example, ceased to be an idol “street gang” the moment the second generation showed up. So, whether or not you believe in this theory as an important element of a successful group is rather irrelevant when considering current Momuso. Meanwhile, the two H!P Kids groups are very much still “street gang” groups.
However, the fact remains that, regardless of their imperfections, these 3 theories form the basis for the formation and development of nearly every idol group, and therefore will be used to form the basis for this discussion about the current H!P idol group’s future membership.

Finally, once you get beyond these three theories for idol group formulation, there is one last guideline that applies specifically, not to idol group creation, but to idol group maintenance. This is the “Rock and a Hard Place” rule. This theory primarily concerns itself with the effect a specific idol’s departure has on the group and whether or not new idols can mitigate these effects, ameliorate them, or even improve the group in some way. A new idol must be an eventual gain, if not for the group and its chemistry, than at least because she can recoup, at least partially, the financial loss a departing idol creates.
A new idol is expensive, both to train and to promote, and whether or not she will eventually replace the lost sales of the departing idol cannot be easily predicted. So, the question becomes, will you replace the lost revenues created by a departing idol by spending more money to find, train, and promote a new idol who may, in the end, never be nearly as popular (and profitable) as the departing idol was? It is a difficult question to answer for a business that operates on narrow margins already.

Continued tomorrow.