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Idol Replacement Therapy: A Series in Three Parts.
By: The Incredible He-Hulk
Apologies to any who have been anticipating the third part to this series. While I had the frame of all three articles written before posting the first, circumstances led to an inability to flesh it out until now. The time I can dedicate to my H!P hobby is mostly used up by managing our sub group. That is simply the reality of things. Now, on to part three...
Part 3: Judgments in Decision Making
The theories have been discussed. The facts have been considered. Now, what direction will management take? How will they handle these graduations? And, more importantly, how should they be handled?
Should C-ute add a new member?
No, they shouldn’t.
Will they add a new member?
No, they won’t. There’s too much risk and too little reward.
I will always personally believe that Kanna was added to C-ute in order to balance the unit out with Berryz Koubou before C-ute’s first single debuted—Eight girls apiece to ensure symmetry between the groups. Sadly, the decision to add Kanna to C-ute was made before management knew Maiha wanted to leave Berryz. And since Kanna had already been training for months to be prepared to join C-ute, management really had no choice but to continue with the plan, despite the fact that it would mean C-ute would have one more member than Berryz.
This assumption, when considered with the fact that UFA has never added another girl to the H!P Kids, or later to either Berryz or C-ute, indicates managements reservation in shaking these groups up.
And sadly, when it comes to Erika, there is the simple the fact that she has never really been central to the group’s success. She will be greatly missed, but nothing really changes with her departure. One could argue that the removal of someone like Airi would force H!P to either replace her with an idol capable of diminishing the loss of such a important member or simply sack the group altogether. The loss of a back row girl like Erika allows them to simply continue on as if nothing has happened. H!P has a very good idea of how popular each girl is. Erika’s leaving is a sad event for most, but not a deal breaker for 95% of C-ute’s wota.
These points make a strong case for H!P’s reservation to mess with the “idol gang” chemistry of these groups, but there is an additional factor at work beyond H!P simply adhering to this rule. It is a belief that while Morning Musume may be eternal, all of H!P’s other groups are transient and fleeting. Such has always been the case with H!P’s other acts. Country Musume, Coconuts Musume, T&C Bomber, etc. All of these served H!P to varying degrees of success, but beyond a few changes to the lineups during the first year, or so, none of these groups were artificially boosted by new talent regardless of what talent left the groups. Once they had outlived their usefulness they were all left to rot. In business terms, Momuso would be referred to as H!P’s “core product.” They are central to the survival of their entire company and make the money that sustains the business. The H!P Kids groups cannot be considered core products, at best they are very profitable side-projects. The distinction not only lies in sales, but in the fact that Morning Musume holds a position in Japanese popular culture that H!P’s other groups simply do not and will not possess. Momuso fuels H!P’s other acts. This was truer in years past than today, but it is still fundamental.
Now, C-ute and Berryz are both popular enough that they probably won’t ever just go the way of H!P’s neglected groups, but I can imagine with little difficulty an eventual end similar to that of Mini Moni. Over time, enough girls will leave each group that management will simply dissolve them rather then let them continue on so short handed. As for the fate of any H!P Kids that remain after this dissolution, that topic is one best reserved for other discussions…
Will Morning Musume add a new member?
Yes, they certainly will.
Should they add a new member?
There is no other choice.
All the reasons why C-ute won’t replace Erika apply to Morning Musume’s situation, only in reverse. As mentioned, they are the flagship group. They must always exist for H!P to have any chance of remaining a successful idol house. They are the rock on which Tsunku has built his idol church.
They also have never had group stability, so the entirety of the fans have never really thought of a particular lineup as the only lineup that is truly Morning Musume. Because the expectation of lineup changes has always existed, it’s much easier to perpetrate this act upon the fanbase.
Additionally, it is my belief that Tsunku is constantly chasing Goto Maki (I may do a future article entirely on this point). Goto Maki’s arrival in the group marked the beginning of Momuso’s golden age of massive sales and mass-market fame. H!P has been trying to recapture that magic with a fresh new face that would push millions of CD’s ever since. Kusumi Koharu was supposed to be that girl—Tsunku said as much. It turned out she wasn’t, and Tsunku has jumped ship. But he will apparently try again.
As I said last time, this strategy seemingly flies in the face of new management’s decision to break this “too many cooks” cycle and try to make Momuso a group defined by strong, recognizable personalities. Since the pandas arrived, there have been no line-up changes of any kind. This is by far the longest period of group stability we have ever seen. Based on this fact, and the statements of their current manager, I believed we might see several more years with the same lineup. If anyone would have graduated, it would have been Ai, but only when she decided she was ready to leave.
Deciding to graduate Koharu (a 17 year old, still in the early stage of her idol prime) flies in the face of all of that. However, it is very much in keeping with the willy-nilly, gut decisions Tsunku has made for years concerning the group. Tsunku was always the man behind the decision to graduate old members and bring in new girls. Is a power struggle happening behind the scenes between a management that now wants group stability and a producer whose whim has for so long prevented it? Do they each have different goals for the group? I won’t pretend to know. But I do know that Koharu’s graduation does show us that, despite any talk to the contrary, very little will actually change in how Momuso is run. It certainly puts the fear of God back into the wota. At any moment your favorite Momuso member could just blink out of existence. Gather ye idols while ye may…
If graduations are making a comeback, then auditions cannot be far behind. If staple girls must be plucked form the group then new girls must take their places. It will happen, and I cannot imagine us going any longer than another calendar year from Koharu’s graduation date before we get a new member, or two, or three.
