Idol Replacement Therapy: A Series in Three Parts.

By: The Incredible He-Hulk


Apologies to any who have been anticipating the third part to this series. While I had the frame of all three articles written before posting the first, circumstances led to an inability to flesh it out until now. The time I can dedicate to my H!P hobby is mostly used up by managing our sub group. That is simply the reality of things. Now, on to part three...


Part 3: Judgments in Decision Making

The theories have been discussed. The facts have been considered. Now, what direction will management take? How will they handle these graduations? And, more importantly, how should they be handled?

Should C-ute add a new member?
No, they shouldn’t.

Will they add a new member?
No, they won’t. There’s too much risk and too little reward.

I will always personally believe that Kanna was added to C-ute in order to balance the unit out with Berryz Koubou before C-ute’s first single debuted—Eight girls apiece to ensure symmetry between the groups. Sadly, the decision to add Kanna to C-ute was made before management knew Maiha wanted to leave Berryz. And since Kanna had already been training for months to be prepared to join C-ute, management really had no choice but to continue with the plan, despite the fact that it would mean C-ute would have one more member than Berryz.
This assumption, when considered with the fact that UFA has never added another girl to the H!P Kids, or later to either Berryz or C-ute, indicates managements reservation in shaking these groups up.
And sadly, when it comes to Erika, there is the simple the fact that she has never really been central to the group’s success. She will be greatly missed, but nothing really changes with her departure. One could argue that the removal of someone like Airi would force H!P to either replace her with an idol capable of diminishing the loss of such a important member or simply sack the group altogether. The loss of a back row girl like Erika allows them to simply continue on as if nothing has happened. H!P has a very good idea of how popular each girl is. Erika’s leaving is a sad event for most, but not a deal breaker for 95% of C-ute’s wota.

These points make a strong case for H!P’s reservation to mess with the “idol gang” chemistry of these groups, but there is an additional factor at work beyond H!P simply adhering to this rule. It is a belief that while Morning Musume may be eternal, all of H!P’s other groups are transient and fleeting. Such has always been the case with H!P’s other acts. Country Musume, Coconuts Musume, T&C Bomber, etc. All of these served H!P to varying degrees of success, but beyond a few changes to the lineups during the first year, or so, none of these groups were artificially boosted by new talent regardless of what talent left the groups. Once they had outlived their usefulness they were all left to rot. In business terms, Momuso would be referred to as H!P’s “core product.” They are central to the survival of their entire company and make the money that sustains the business. The H!P Kids groups cannot be considered core products, at best they are very profitable side-projects. The distinction not only lies in sales, but in the fact that Morning Musume holds a position in Japanese popular culture that H!P’s other groups simply do not and will not possess. Momuso fuels H!P’s other acts. This was truer in years past than today, but it is still fundamental.
Now, C-ute and Berryz are both popular enough that they probably won’t ever just go the way of H!P’s neglected groups, but I can imagine with little difficulty an eventual end similar to that of Mini Moni. Over time, enough girls will leave each group that management will simply dissolve them rather then let them continue on so short handed. As for the fate of any H!P Kids that remain after this dissolution, that topic is one best reserved for other discussions…

Will Morning Musume add a new member?
Yes, they certainly will.

Should they add a new member?
There is no other choice.

All the reasons why C-ute won’t replace Erika apply to Morning Musume’s situation, only in reverse. As mentioned, they are the flagship group. They must always exist for H!P to have any chance of remaining a successful idol house. They are the rock on which Tsunku has built his idol church.
They also have never had group stability, so the entirety of the fans have never really thought of a particular lineup as the only lineup that is truly Morning Musume. Because the expectation of lineup changes has always existed, it’s much easier to perpetrate this act upon the fanbase.

Additionally, it is my belief that Tsunku is constantly chasing Goto Maki (I may do a future article entirely on this point). Goto Maki’s arrival in the group marked the beginning of Momuso’s golden age of massive sales and mass-market fame. H!P has been trying to recapture that magic with a fresh new face that would push millions of CD’s ever since. Kusumi Koharu was supposed to be that girl—Tsunku said as much. It turned out she wasn’t, and Tsunku has jumped ship. But he will apparently try again.
As I said last time, this strategy seemingly flies in the face of new management’s decision to break this “too many cooks” cycle and try to make Momuso a group defined by strong, recognizable personalities. Since the pandas arrived, there have been no line-up changes of any kind. This is by far the longest period of group stability we have ever seen. Based on this fact, and the statements of their current manager, I believed we might see several more years with the same lineup. If anyone would have graduated, it would have been Ai, but only when she decided she was ready to leave.
Deciding to graduate Koharu (a 17 year old, still in the early stage of her idol prime) flies in the face of all of that. However, it is very much in keeping with the willy-nilly, gut decisions Tsunku has made for years concerning the group. Tsunku was always the man behind the decision to graduate old members and bring in new girls. Is a power struggle happening behind the scenes between a management that now wants group stability and a producer whose whim has for so long prevented it? Do they each have different goals for the group? I won’t pretend to know. But I do know that Koharu’s graduation does show us that, despite any talk to the contrary, very little will actually change in how Momuso is run. It certainly puts the fear of God back into the wota. At any moment your favorite Momuso member could just blink out of existence. Gather ye idols while ye may…

If graduations are making a comeback, then auditions cannot be far behind. If staple girls must be plucked form the group then new girls must take their places. It will happen, and I cannot imagine us going any longer than another calendar year from Koharu’s graduation date before we get a new member, or two, or three.

Read more...

Idol Replacement Therapy: A Series in Three Parts.

By: The Incredible He-Hulk

Part 2: The Circumstances of Dilemma

Whenever a group loses an idol, that group risks losing some, or all, of the wota that were primarily fans of that girl. If the remaining idols can’t fill the vacuum, then the group will decline. To ameliorate this issue, idol groups often add new members. But, if the replacement isn’t a strong personality with a lot of appeal, she’ll end up being little more than dead weight for the girls already in the group—someone to drag along with them who contributes very little individually. Conversely, a new girl cannot be too forceful or too talented. A new girl thrust to the forefront of a long existing group is often met with hostility by existing fans that have existing favorite members. When a new girl is featured over a group of veteran members, hard feelings are inevitable and the new girl is demonized by many. And, what’s worse, even beyond these general hurdles all idol groups face when their line-ups change, C-ute and Morning Musume face additional, exclusive challenges when it comes to finding new members—Challenges based on each group’s unique founding, history, and standing in the idol world.

The H!P Kids groups should be categorized as idol ”street gangs”. Each born from a common collection of girls raised to be idols since adolescence. These girls have common experiences that have forged them into cohesive idoling units of one mind and one purpose. These girls have strived for years to get where they are today. They’ve succeeded and failed together. They’ve laughed and cried together. They’ve known heartache and joy together. And it’s because of this unified history that many fans of these groups cannot see them as revolving door units. They are fixed member acts that are made up of only the girls who deserve to be a part of them—the girl’s whose blood, sweat and tears forged their success and name recognition in the first place.

H!P has largely held to this “street gang” principle when handling C-ute and Berryz Koubou. In all the years since the H!P Kids were chosen, only one girl was ever added to the mix after the fact. Because of this, for a lot of fans, Arihara Kanna never really fit. I liked her (I like all the idols), but Kanna was never able to amass much of a following, and she never really looked like she was 100% comfortable being the new girl in a collection of idols that had existed for years prior to her involvement. It was no wonder then, that after much subterfuge and idol machinations, Kanna retired from H!P with no fanfare or eulogization. She simply ceased to exist. Kanna represents a lesson learned. Don’t mess with the H!P Kids group’s lineups if you can avoid it.

And yet, with the eminent departure of Umeda Erika, C-ute will soon find itself a five member group, three members short of their largest lineup. So, what will H!P choose to do? Will they be tempted to pull the trigger on a new girl simply because C-ute was formally an 8 member act? The desire to maintain original intentions and the status quo is often a strong one. Or, will they choose to stay the course with the 5 remaining members? A 5 member idol group can be successful as long as the personalities are strong enough, and C-ute’s two most important members remain intact. Both possibilities offer positive and negative outcomes.

Meanwhile, Morning Musume faces a similar situation, albeit one with its own set of particular challenges. In their case, they are losing a girl who is very popular, and, although she isn’t the lead, Kusumi Koharu occupies a place of prominence in the group. Because of this, any new girl that is added to the group won’t be able to, at least in the short term, replace Koharu’s popularity. She will be the new low-rung on the idol totem pole, and will be starting in a similar place to where the pandas began their careers. In a lot of senses, today’s Momuso is a group with few stars, and the last thing a group like that needs is another girl without star power.
But even though Momuso is losing a much more valuable member than C-ute is, they also have several advantages unique to their group that make adding replacement idols much easier, and, frankly, expected. For much of its history, Momuso was a “Growth or Death” idol group. In fact, they didn’t even reach the height of their fame until after they had replaced some of the original members and added new ones beyond those. Because there is an expectation of new members amongst fans, there will be very few rumbling against such a thing.

Additionally, despite the group’s age (and all the warts that come with it), Morning Musume is Morning Musume. The group’s former status as a pop culture phenomenon has caused it to be a name known to all of Japan. So, even though the group no longer sells nearly what it once sold, many prospective idols who would not be interested in trying out to be a member of C-ute or Berryz would want to be in Morning Musume. Morning Musume auditions receive thousands more applicants than H!P Egg auditions, and that fact alone increases the odds of finding a highly qualified replacement. Finding someone who is capable of replacing both Koharu’s important role and reaching her level of popularity is possible if not exactly likely.

A final simply interesting fact is that this graduation flies in the face of management’s recent openly acknowledged attempts to turn Momuso into a “too many cooks” idol group. Momuso’s manager has admitted in interviews that today’s group is largely unknown as individuals and that they recognize this as a problem. Few Japanese know any of the girls, or would even recognize that these girl’s are in Momuso unless you pointed it out. One of the goals of this new era was to reacquaint the girls, as individuals, with the nation. A graduation and then an audition flies in the face of this new approach. It’s a return to the same old, same old revolving door idol group.

Tomorrow, what to do.

Read more...

Idol Replacement Therapy: A Series in Three Parts.

By: The Incredible He-Hulk

The daily idol grind has claimed two new victims. By the end of the year, both C-ute’s Umeda Erika and Morning Musume’s Kusumi Koharu will move on from their idol careers into the nebulous career of “modeling.” But while I personally believe these girls want to be models mostly because being a model isn’t being an idol, the how or why of it isn’t of any particular significance. Graduated idols are spilled milk, and there’s no use crying (or speculating) over spilled milk. The real—and much more fun—question is whether or not H!P will bother to replace these fallen soldiers with fresh faced idol recruits.

I will be tackling this issue in a series of posts over the next few days. Today’s post will concern itself with the mechanics of idol replacement—the blueprints used to build the temples at which we worship. Tomorrow’s post will focus on the particular situations each group faces when considering adding new members, as well as the obstacles associated with those situations. Finally, the last article will discuss the pros and cons of adding members to each group and whether or not they should.

Part 1: A Conflict of Visions.

The first decision an idol house must make is simply whether or not a group needs an infusion of idol talent. C-ute and Momuso both have specific considerations to make, unique to each of them, when considering adding new girls. But before we deal with specifics, there are a few general schools of thought on what I’ll refer to here as the numerology of idol groupings, and many of these theories (all given names, now, by me) have been used for years by idol fans—whether they realize it or not—to argue for and against adding members to their favorite groups. At the very least, each has some interesting points to make:

- First, there is the “Growth or Death” school of thought. This theory postulates that an idol group that isn’t constantly replacing old idols, and occasionally simply adding new idols, is an idol group on the decline. In recent years, new groups such as AKB48 have made this theory the basis for their entire marketing strategy. The more idols you have in your group, the better chance that fans will find an idol in your group worth following.

- Next, there is the “Too Many Cooks” theory. This theory postulates that having too many idols in a group prevents idols from creating strong personal identities and building name recognition as individuals. An idol group is only as strong as it’s most famous idol. This is the primary theory used by “bandol” groups like ZONE, and other fixed number idol acts. By keeping the roster small, you put increased emphasis on each girl. Additionally, this increased emphasis creates increased pressure on the group’s idols to be appealing across a wide array of wota demographics.

- Lastly, there is the “Street Gang” theory of idol group creation which puts forth the position that there is an important bonding experience idols all go through when they are the founding members of a group. Their struggle to earn success unites them in a way that nothing else can, and so the close ties formed during this period give an idol group its personal identity. Thusly, any members added to the group after this period dilute the group’s power and further distance the act from its roots.

These three principles are helpful, but flawed, and are rarely universally applicable. This is partially because each principle argues against the others on some level, but also because the nature of an idol group’s formation is so often unique. Morning Musume, for example, ceased to be an idol “street gang” the moment the second generation showed up. So, whether or not you believe in this theory as an important element of a successful group is rather irrelevant when considering current Momuso. Meanwhile, the two H!P Kids groups are very much still “street gang” groups.
However, the fact remains that, regardless of their imperfections, these 3 theories form the basis for the formation and development of nearly every idol group, and therefore will be used to form the basis for this discussion about the current H!P idol group’s future membership.

Finally, once you get beyond these three theories for idol group formulation, there is one last guideline that applies specifically, not to idol group creation, but to idol group maintenance. This is the “Rock and a Hard Place” rule. This theory primarily concerns itself with the effect a specific idol’s departure has on the group and whether or not new idols can mitigate these effects, ameliorate them, or even improve the group in some way. A new idol must be an eventual gain, if not for the group and its chemistry, than at least because she can recoup, at least partially, the financial loss a departing idol creates.
A new idol is expensive, both to train and to promote, and whether or not she will eventually replace the lost sales of the departing idol cannot be easily predicted. So, the question becomes, will you replace the lost revenues created by a departing idol by spending more money to find, train, and promote a new idol who may, in the end, never be nearly as popular (and profitable) as the departing idol was? It is a difficult question to answer for a business that operates on narrow margins already.

Continued tomorrow.

Read more...

Ichigo ichie 6/18 pt 2 - Kusumi guest appearance

By: Zabel


I often get asked where one can go to listen to Ichigo ichie. The show is up for 24 hours every thursday-friday on the official fan club site, but you need to be a member in order to access the page. For the rest of us, a kind person, usually H!O member lovemusic, uploads the show in mp3 format weekly. You can get it by regularly checking the Takahashi thread at H!O, or the H!P's TV appearances, radio shows, magazine thread at Jpopmusic might be easier.

Ichigo ichie 6/18 continued

With the year half over, Aichan lists her "Best 3":

#3. Ojigi de shape up!
#2. The Platinum 9 disk spring tour
#1. Anime Expo

They talk about the upcoming 11.5 hour flight to Los Angeles, about eating, sleeping, talking, and watching movies on planes.

And here's Koharu's "Best 3":

#3. She learned how to make sweets.
#2. She grew in height.
#1. She grew inside.

According to Koharu, she noticed that she had grown in height today lol. Not because she measured herself or anything, but when she looked in the mirror that day her clothes seemed smaller. This could be because her clothes shrunk, thinks Aichan. Koharu blames that on her mom who washes her clothes. XD She calls her mom 'baka' (idiot) over this, but Aichan chides her that if she did her own laundry she would realize how easy it is to get items mixed up.

Aichan gives Koha an even harder time about that claim about growing inside.

Aichan: "You lie! That's your #1 lie."
Koharu: "What? You can see for yourself."
Aichan: "I can't tell at all."
Koharu: "Really? Haven't I become more like an adult?"
Aichan: "Wait until after you've had a few more birthdays to say that."
Koharu: "I'm already 17."
Aichan: (pronouncing '17' in english) "17. You think that's okay?"
Koharu: "Totally! Inside I feel like I'm 20."
Aichan: "You lie!"

But Aichan admits that Koharu acts like an adult when they go out to eat together. Koha insists that she is always an adult but Aichan isn't buying it. Koharu wants to be 18 so she can drive. She wants to drive with passengers.

It's time for the Tettekete advice corner. "Oh, is that what 'tettekete' means?", asks Koharu. A listener with a friend going to study abroad in Australia wants to give a gift to help him remember Japan. Aichan suggests soy sauce (in English). Koharu spaces out here, asking to have the question repeated to her, and more than once muttering New Zealand instead of Australia as she brainstorms. She tries to think of what she would like to have if she were going overseas, and among the ideas she comes up with are hamburgers, dried plums, seaweed, cuttlefish, clothing, her big sister, a blanket, a futon. She could go on forever. Aichan does her best to wrap up the segment.

Ichigo ichie has a new sticker that Aichan will be signing and giving away to each person whose mail she reads on the show, as well as to one person randomly selected. Just when I was about to give up trying to get my message read. And, next week she will announce Morning Musume's new single.

Lastly, Aichan always signs off saying, "This has been Takahashi Ai who wants to ___." and has her guests do likewise. How does Koharu sign off? "This has been Kusumi Koharu who wants to run a marathon!"

Read more...

Ichigo ichie 6/18 pt 1 - Kusumi guest appearance

By: Zabel


Ichigo went for over 48 minutes this week. That's more than twice the usual length! I suppose since it is broadcast on the web rather than the radio, they can record for as long as they darn well please. Anyway, I'm gonna seize the excuse to break this up into two segments.

Ojigi de shape up! has concluded, and we can expect to hear talk about this topic and others from Aichan and guest Kusumi Koharu.

Ichigo ichie 6/18

Aichan plays a recording of backstage on the last day of Ojigi. There's a Sayumi impersonator in their midst XD We hear a low voice say, "I'm Michishigerogero Sayumi" ('gerogero' means 'disgusting') All in good fun. Aichan goes around asking everyone to name something they discovered through doing Ojigi, and this cast member, who they call 'Acchan', responds that she didn't know Morning Musume were such good people. Kamei discovered that "Morning Musume is the best". XD Especially the leader and her acting, she adds.

Continuing with the recording, Aichan finds Sayumi to ask her the same question, also telling her about the "Michishigerogero" joke that Acchan made. Sayumi says that she never met such a mean person before in her life XD Acchan is in the room with them and some banter commences. The two of them make a good comedic pair. Aichan says that they are actually friends. In this Ojigi blog post, Sayumi wrote about putting a pink ribbon on Acchan.

The recording ends. From there Aichan is about to talk about her experience acting in the play when it becomes apparent that there is another person in the studio lol. So it's time to introduce noisy Koharu-chan. In fact, we learned from the Kamei guest appearance that there are five or so people in the room with Aichan while Ichigo is recorded, which was embarrassing for Aichan until she got used to it. Koharu tells us that there are several cameras in the room. Cameras? Hmm.

Aichan and the crew performed Ojigi de shape up! 15 times. Koharu sat up in the front beside Gaki-san when she watched, and she found the play funny. It made her want to participate herself. She watched while wondering who came up with all them names. She didn't get a chance to see Ojigi 30 do because she had a cold at the time.

This time around Aichan was required to cry as part of the script! Well, we wouldn't expect such a thing to be hard for our lovely crybaby, but it was trickier than one might think to play the role correctly. At first in rehearsals she was crying too early, whereas the character she plays, Karin, is the strong type who wouldn't cry so quickly. The play couldn't proceed unless Aichan cried at the right time, so she was under pressure. It seems that the director Ota said, "It doesn't matter what it's about, but I wanted to have Takahashi Ai cry." Gosh I can't wait to watch the video when it is released!

Aichan asks Koharu to do one of her better imitations. Koharu hasn't been feeling confident about her imitations lately, but she does the Mario jump sound for us. Hehe cute. They address a listener mail asking how to keep a bubble bath going.

Then the "Ainote irete kudasai" segment (合の手入れてください). Aichan recommends the children's fantasy movie The Spiderwick Chronicles, and Koharu recommends Crayon Shin-chan, which she has been bicycling to the rental store to get lately. Aichan's mom likes it too.

To be continued.

Read more...